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How long will Arroyo last?

MANILA – She will be out by December, or earlier!
This was the general consensus of various political and sectoral groups here early thjis month as the controversy over the Hello Garci tapes continued to rage.
The most radical observers even predict a bloody ending if President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo insists on remaining in power. The fear is that a protracted controversy would cause an economic decline that will bring about hardship to the people and divide the armed forces into pro- and anti-GMA groups.
What is certain is that the President’s credibility and ability to govern has been seriously compromised by the alleged rigging of the presidential election last year. “Who will now believe anything that she says,” said one political pundit.
Right now, instead of governing, the President and her supporters are devoting their time to saving the Presidency. They are alsoesperately seeking the support of the US and other foreign governments.
If the impeachment proceedings are impeded by the President’s supporters in Congress, there is even a likelihood of a reprise of the ouster of President Joseph Estrada. The people then revolted because Estrada’s supporters in the Senate impeachment trial blocked the opening of envelops which would have shown that Estrada had received payola from jueteng lords.
The same thing is true if the so-called truth commission which was proposed by the bishops and supported by Malacanang would end up in a whitewash.
The latest revelations in the Hello Garci tapes include supposed direct instructions from the President herself to Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcellano and military officers to “dagdag” (increase) her votes during the counting of the results in some areas of the country in the May, 2004 elections.
The exile of what critics now call the “bayawaks” (bayao *brother-in-law, asawa (husband) and anak (son) has not eased the clamor for the President to resign. Some of the 11 Cabinet members who resigned early this month and called for her resignation are said to be ready to testify in an impeachment hearing. The impeachment case against Ms. Arroyo will not only be devoted to the Hello Garci tapes but will also include her style of governance.
In the midst of the continuing controversy, Malacanang has been busy fending off attacks. It recently organized a topnotch propaganda machine to boost the President’s image and picture the opposition as a group hungry for power. This machinery is made up of all the top PR men whose main purpose is to discredit the Garci tapes and picture the President as being on top of the situation.
Among its projects thus far is the so called Chavit tapes which purportedly reveals a plot to assassinate President Arroyo; a supposed declaration by a defunct group of young officers (Young Officers Union) calling for her ouster by force; the spate of pledges of allegiance to the President by various political, religious, student and other leaders. This included a Malacanang press release which said a group of Filipino Americans who recently called on her in Malacanang pledged their support to her.
It is also undertaking a demolition job of all the jueteng witnesses and those involved in the Garci tapes.
To prove that she is a strong leader in command of the situation, she recently issued a statement warning the opposition against any extra-legal means to destroy her administration. Because the communists are supporting her ouster, she has threatened to scrap the peace agreement with the National Democratic Front, the political arm of the Coimmusist party of the Philippines and arrest their leaders who are facing charges in court.
When former President Corazon Aquino openly asked for her resignation, Malacanang, including the secretary of justice, attacked Cory and her son Noynoy and Chris. While the statement of the Bishops of Conference of the Philippines took no stand on whether or not the President should resign, Malacanang made much of the fact that it called for the creation of a truth commission and a constitutional solution to the problem.
The same thing happened to the 11 Cabinet members who resigned and called for her resignation. The propaganda machine is now dishing out alleged dossiers against these Cabinet members, including labeling them as incompetent and traitors.
It is now obvious the opposition is staging rallies in Makati city, the center of business, to drive away investors and cause an economic downturn. Already, the three major US rating agencies have downgraded the Philippines to negative.
Adding to the tumult is the continuing Senate jueteng hearings in which top witnesses implicated Presidential son, Pampanga Rep. Juan Miguel “Mikey” Arroyo and brother-in-law Negros Occidental Rep. Ignacio “Iggy” Arroyo as recipients of jueteng payolas.
The star witness, Sandra Cam, also said the First Gentleman Juan Miguel “Mike” Arroyo also received payolas under the name of “Jose Pidal.” The Senate last year held a hearing on the Pidal case but nothing came out of it.
More witnesses have testified about the range and scope of the jueteng scandal involving other political leaders, adding that the President herself had received payolas.
Ironically, Mrs. Arroyo assumed the presidency in 2001 after President Estrada was ousted in a military-backed revolt arising out of charges that he had received jueteng money and deposited these in a bank using an alias.
Like Estrada, Mrs. Arroyo has been implicated in the jueteng scandal. But what makes her situation more precarious is that beside the jueteng payolas involving herself and her family, is the existence of wiretapped tapes indicating that she cheated in the elections.
Perhaps believing that the best defense is offense, she labeled juetengate and the tapegate as a ‘dirty political trick" by the opposition. Her propaganda machine said the twin events were part of the opposition’s campaign to oust her.
The Department of Justice, the National Bureau of Investigation, the Philippine National Police and the military were harnessed to accuse or harass those involved in the release of the tapes. They tried to establish a tieup between the wiretapped tapes and the opposition, including the alleged payment of P2 million by Estrada’s mistress to the military man who made the wiretap. They are even threatening to arrest those who are distributing copies of the tapes or printing propaganda materials calling for the President’s ouster.
One reason the business community and the public may not have reacted as violently as they did in the ouster of Estrada is that her resignation or impeachment would result in her vice president, Noli de Castro, assuming her post. They think he is not qualified to lead the country. On the other hand, if it will be a coup, the alternative would be worse, the ascendancy of a military junta.

By A. M. Alfaro